Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren and Republican challenger Shane Lewis remain closely matched in trader pricing for the CA-18 general election on November 3, 2026, with the district's strong Democratic lean offset by uncertainty over the final margin of victory. The seat's partisan voting index and consistent past results favor Lofgren, yet limited recent polling, modest challenger fundraising, and the top-two primary structure that advanced both candidates contribute to tight probabilities across margin brackets. Key variables include turnout among suburban and Central Valley voters, any late-cycle national messaging on economic issues, and standard ballot-counting timelines in Santa Clara, Monterey, and surrounding counties. Forecasters continue to classify the race as solidly Democratic, but the wisdom of crowds in the market reflects ongoing assessment of how wide the eventual gap will be.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডCA-18 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-18 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 20-25% 43%
Democrat 40-45% 43%
Democrat 25-30% 43%
Democrat 5-15% 43%
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 45%+
42%
Democrat 40-45%
43%
Democrat 35-40%
42%
Democrat 30-35%
42%
Democrat 25-30%
43%
Democrat 20-25%
43%
Democrat 15-20%
42%
Democrat 5-15%
43%
Democrat 0-5%
43%
Republican Wins
42%
Democrat 20-25% 43%
Democrat 40-45% 43%
Democrat 25-30% 43%
Democrat 5-15% 43%
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 45%+
$0 Vol.
42%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Vol.
43%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 Vol.
42%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 Vol.
42%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 Vol.
43%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 Vol.
43%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 Vol.
42%
Democrat 5-15%
$0 Vol.
43%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 Vol.
43%
Republican Wins
$0 Vol.
42%
The 2026 CA-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren and Republican challenger Shane Lewis remain closely matched in trader pricing for the CA-18 general election on November 3, 2026, with the district's strong Democratic lean offset by uncertainty over the final margin of victory. The seat's partisan voting index and consistent past results favor Lofgren, yet limited recent polling, modest challenger fundraising, and the top-two primary structure that advanced both candidates contribute to tight probabilities across margin brackets. Key variables include turnout among suburban and Central Valley voters, any late-cycle national messaging on economic issues, and standard ballot-counting timelines in Santa Clara, Monterey, and surrounding counties. Forecasters continue to classify the race as solidly Democratic, but the wisdom of crowds in the market reflects ongoing assessment of how wide the eventual gap will be.
The 2026 CA-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren and Republican challenger Shane Lewis remain closely matched in trader pricing for the CA-18 general election on November 3, 2026, with the district's strong Democratic lean offset by uncertainty over the final margin of victory. The seat's partisan voting index and consistent past results favor Lofgren, yet limited recent polling, modest challenger fundraising, and the top-two primary structure that advanced both candidates contribute to tight probabilities across margin brackets. Key variables include turnout among suburban and Central Valley voters, any late-cycle national messaging on economic issues, and standard ballot-counting timelines in Santa Clara, Monterey, and surrounding counties. Forecasters continue to classify the race as solidly Democratic, but the wisdom of crowds in the market reflects ongoing assessment of how wide the eventual gap will be.
The 2026 CA-18 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-18 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Zoe Lofgren and Republican challenger Shane Lewis remain closely matched in trader pricing for the CA-18 general election on November 3, 2026, with the district's strong Democratic lean offset by uncertainty over the final margin of victory. The seat's partisan voting index and consistent past results favor Lofgren, yet limited recent polling, modest challenger fundraising, and the top-two primary structure that advanced both candidates contribute to tight probabilities across margin brackets. Key variables include turnout among suburban and Central Valley voters, any late-cycle national messaging on economic issues, and standard ballot-counting timelines in Santa Clara, Monterey, and surrounding counties. Forecasters continue to classify the race as solidly Democratic, but the wisdom of crowds in the market reflects ongoing assessment of how wide the eventual gap will be.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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