Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE holding near 3.3%, combined with solid GDP growth and a stable labor market (unemployment at 4.1% in July), underpins the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Traders price a 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike as the next most likely outcome, reflecting recent energy-driven price pressures and June dot-plot signals that nine participants now anticipate at least one increase by year-end. Upcoming August employment and CPI releases, along with the September 15-16 FOMC, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$1,018,459 Vol.
$1,018,459 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
71%
25 bps increase
27%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$1,018,459 Vol.
$1,018,459 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$174,005 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$359,820 Vol.
3%
No change
$187,016 Vol.
71%
25 bps increase
$178,557 Vol.
27%
50+ bps increase
$119,061 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE holding near 3.3%, combined with solid GDP growth and a stable labor market (unemployment at 4.1% in July), underpins the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Traders price a 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike as the next most likely outcome, reflecting recent energy-driven price pressures and June dot-plot signals that nine participants now anticipate at least one increase by year-end. Upcoming August employment and CPI releases, along with the September 15-16 FOMC, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,018,459শেষ তারিখ
Oct 28, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE holding near 3.3%, combined with solid GDP growth and a stable labor market (unemployment at 4.1% in July), underpins the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Traders price a 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike as the next most likely outcome, reflecting recent energy-driven price pressures and June dot-plot signals that nine participants now anticipate at least one increase by year-end. Upcoming August employment and CPI releases, along with the September 15-16 FOMC, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$1,018,459শেষ তারিখ
Oct 28, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE holding near 3.3%, combined with solid GDP growth and a stable labor market (unemployment at 4.1% in July), underpins the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Traders price a 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike as the next most likely outcome, reflecting recent energy-driven price pressures and June dot-plot signals that nine participants now anticipate at least one increase by year-end. Upcoming August employment and CPI releases, along with the September 15-16 FOMC, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা