Resilient U.S. economic data and elevated inflation have anchored the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, driving the 96% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. The Fed funds target range remains 3.50%–3.75% after multiple holds, supported by August 2026 nonfarm payrolls adding 162,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.1%. Projections from Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and the June FOMC Summary of Economic Projections point to the first cuts only in mid-2027, as tariff effects, Middle East energy pressures, and core PCE above target delay easing. Traders price a prolonged pause or modest hikes through year-end 2026. Tail risks include a sharp geopolitical escalation spiking oil prices or an abrupt financial-market shock that forces an unscheduled move before the next FOMC meetings.