Persistent gang violence, limited funding, and recent postponement of voter and candidate registration have created substantial obstacles to meeting the August 2026 first-round schedule set by the Provisional Electoral Council. Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé has publicly stated that current security conditions fall short of requirements, while alignment with a new national political pact adds procedural complexity. These factors sustain trader uncertainty around the closely balanced 51.5% implied probability for further delay. Progress on security improvements, funding commitments, or rapid resolution of the electoral decree could support on-time voting, whereas continued instability or additional registration setbacks would likely reinforce expectations of postponement beyond December 2026.