Iliana Iotova holds a commanding lead in trader pricing due to her incumbency advantage and consolidated backing from Progressive Bulgaria—the largest parliamentary party—along with the Bulgarian Socialist Party and aligned groups through an initiative committee. Andrey Gyurov trails as the primary challenger, drawing support from the pro-EU PP-DB bloc after serving as caretaker prime minister, yet faces limits from GERB's decision to skip fielding a candidate to avoid splitting that vote. The contest centers on divergent foreign policy stances, with Iotova emphasizing a peace-focused approach to the Ukraine conflict and Gyurov stressing firmer European alignment and sanctions enforcement. A recent ammunition depot fire has sharpened security critiques from the opposition side ahead of the October 25 first round. Minor candidates remain marginal amid this two-way consolidation.