Incumbent Adama Barrow leads trader consensus at 74.5% for the December 5, 2026 Gambian presidential election, reflecting his position as the National People’s Party nominee seeking a third term and stronger perceived electability in recent polling. An August 2026 Gambia Participates survey showed him at 32% vote intention ahead of Ousainou Darboe at 25% and Talib Ahmed Bensouda at 19%, with Barrow viewed as the frontrunner by 51% of respondents. Ousainou Darboe at 15.5% and lower-priced candidates such as Essa Faal and Bakary K. Badjie trail amid a crowded field. Early September protests over electricity shortages prompted Barrow to announce new generation capacity, though Darboe has continued criticizing delays on constitutional and reform priorities. The first-past-the-post system and Barrow’s regional strengths in recent surveys reinforce the current pricing.