The transitional military command's oversight of the December 2026 vote, following the 2025 coup that annulled results and ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló, remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment in this fragmented field. Fernando Dias da Costa leads at 21.5% implied probability after claiming victory in the prior contest backed by the PAI–Terra Ranka alliance, while Embaló sits at 9.4% amid his removal from power. Recent passage of a new constitution via referendum, which expands presidential authority and imposes residency requirements, has further dispersed support across lower-probability contenders like José Mário Vaz. Consolidation behind any name will depend on military positioning, opposition coordination, and whether the junta signals preferences before election day.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডGuinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Fernando Dias da Costa 21.5%
José Mário Vaz 2.6%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló 1.7%
Baciro Djá 1.6%
$339,725 Vol.
$339,725 Vol.
Fernando Dias da Costa
22%
José Mário Vaz
3%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
9%
Baciro Djá
2%
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
João de Deus Mendes
2%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
Siga Batista
2%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
2%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
2%
Mário da Silva Júnior
2%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
1%
Fernando Dias da Costa 21.5%
José Mário Vaz 2.6%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló 1.7%
Baciro Djá 1.6%
$339,725 Vol.
$339,725 Vol.
Fernando Dias da Costa
22%
José Mário Vaz
3%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
9%
Baciro Djá
2%
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
João de Deus Mendes
2%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
Siga Batista
2%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
2%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
2%
Mário da Silva Júnior
2%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET
রেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
রেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...The transitional military command's oversight of the December 2026 vote, following the 2025 coup that annulled results and ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló, remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment in this fragmented field. Fernando Dias da Costa leads at 21.5% implied probability after claiming victory in the prior contest backed by the PAI–Terra Ranka alliance, while Embaló sits at 9.4% amid his removal from power. Recent passage of a new constitution via referendum, which expands presidential authority and imposes residency requirements, has further dispersed support across lower-probability contenders like José Mário Vaz. Consolidation behind any name will depend on military positioning, opposition coordination, and whether the junta signals preferences before election day.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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