**Recent model consensus from AEMET and global ensembles points to a peak temperature of 38–39 °C in Madrid on September 4 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that favors subsidence warming and minimal cloud cover.** Official AEMET guidance currently lists a maximum of 38 °C, while GFS-based runs and private forecasts range from 37–39 °C, with some ensembles briefly touching 40 °C during afternoon hours. Low humidity (10–25 %) and light winds will limit mixing, allowing surface temperatures to climb efficiently in the urban heat island. This setup explains why the market assigns the highest implied probability to 39 °C (53 %), followed by 40 °C (26 %) and 38 °C (18 %). Traders are monitoring the next AEMET update and any late shifts in steering flow that could cap or boost the peak by 1–2 °C.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHighest temperature in Madrid on September 4?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 4?
39°C 54%
40°C 26%
38°C 18%
37°C 3%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 4, 2026
33°C or below
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
18%
39°C
54%
40°C
26%
41°C
1%
42°C
1%
43°C or higher
<1%
39°C 54%
40°C 26%
38°C 18%
37°C 3%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 4, 2026
33°C or below
$65 Vol.
1%
34°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$23 Vol.
1%
36°C
$15 Vol.
1%
37°C
$78 Vol.
3%
38°C
$426 Vol.
18%
39°C
$468 Vol.
54%
40°C
$275 Vol.
26%
41°C
$60 Vol.
1%
42°C
$65 Vol.
1%
43°C or higher
$115 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from AEMET and global ensembles points to a peak temperature of 38–39 °C in Madrid on September 4 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that favors subsidence warming and minimal cloud cover.**
Official AEMET guidance currently lists a maximum of 38 °C, while GFS-based runs and private forecasts range from 37–39 °C, with some ensembles briefly touching 40 °C during afternoon hours. Low humidity (10–25 %) and light winds will limit mixing, allowing surface temperatures to climb efficiently in the urban heat island. This setup explains why the market assigns the highest implied probability to 39 °C (53 %), followed by 40 °C (26 %) and 38 °C (18 %). Traders are monitoring the next AEMET update and any late shifts in steering flow that could cap or boost the peak by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
ভলিউম
$1,655শেষ তারিখ
Sep 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from AEMET and global ensembles points to a peak temperature of 38–39 °C in Madrid on September 4 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that favors subsidence warming and minimal cloud cover.**
Official AEMET guidance currently lists a maximum of 38 °C, while GFS-based runs and private forecasts range from 37–39 °C, with some ensembles briefly touching 40 °C during afternoon hours. Low humidity (10–25 %) and light winds will limit mixing, allowing surface temperatures to climb efficiently in the urban heat island. This setup explains why the market assigns the highest implied probability to 39 °C (53 %), followed by 40 °C (26 %) and 38 °C (18 %). Traders are monitoring the next AEMET update and any late shifts in steering flow that could cap or boost the peak by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$1,655শেষ তারিখ
Sep 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model consensus from AEMET and global ensembles points to a peak temperature of 38–39 °C in Madrid on September 4 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow that favors subsidence warming and minimal cloud cover.** Official AEMET guidance currently lists a maximum of 38 °C, while GFS-based runs and private forecasts range from 37–39 °C, with some ensembles briefly touching 40 °C during afternoon hours. Low humidity (10–25 %) and light winds will limit mixing, allowing surface temperatures to climb efficiently in the urban heat island. This setup explains why the market assigns the highest implied probability to 39 °C (53 %), followed by 40 °C (26 %) and 38 °C (18 %). Traders are monitoring the next AEMET update and any late shifts in steering flow that could cap or boost the peak by 1–2 °C.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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