Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.6% implied probability to win Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, driven by his established record since 2019 in this deep-red district rated Trump +29. Despite challenges from state Rep. Craig Haggard, who secured endorsements from figures like Attorney General Todd Rokita in late March and faced $200,000 in anti-Baird PAC spending in April, Baird benefits from incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and limited challenger visibility in a low-turnout primary. John Piper trails far behind at 0.7%. Upsets remain possible via late voter mobilization among conservative critics labeling Baird a RINO over immigration stances or unforeseen scandals, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডJim Baird 100.0%
Craig Haggard <1%
John Piper <1%
$10,148 Vol.
$10,148 Vol.
Jim Baird
Yes
Craig Haggard
No
John Piper
No
Jim Baird 100.0%
Craig Haggard <1%
John Piper <1%
$10,148 Vol.
$10,148 Vol.
Jim Baird
Yes
Craig Haggard
No
John Piper
No
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...ফলাফল প্রস্তাবিত: Yes
কোনো ডিসপিউট নেই
চূড়ান্ত ফলাফল: Yes
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...ফলাফল প্রস্তাবিত: Yes
কোনো ডিসপিউট নেই
চূড়ান্ত ফলাফল: Yes
Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.6% implied probability to win Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, driven by his established record since 2019 in this deep-red district rated Trump +29. Despite challenges from state Rep. Craig Haggard, who secured endorsements from figures like Attorney General Todd Rokita in late March and faced $200,000 in anti-Baird PAC spending in April, Baird benefits from incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and limited challenger visibility in a low-turnout primary. John Piper trails far behind at 0.7%. Upsets remain possible via late voter mobilization among conservative critics labeling Baird a RINO over immigration stances or unforeseen scandals, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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