Attorney General Gentner Drummond leads Polymarket trader consensus at 49.5% implied probability for the June 16 Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting polls like the February Sooner Survey showing him at 36% among likely primary voters—bolstered by statewide name recognition and strength among frequent voters—despite recent controversies over past donations and a property lease drawing attacks from rivals. Former Sen. Mike Mazzei has surged to 27.7%, mirroring his late-March ad blitz and gains in prediction markets like Kalshi, where he briefly led, fueled by Tulsa-area support and property tax messaging. Ex-House Speaker Charles McCall holds 15.5% amid a crowded nine-candidate field likely headed for an August runoff, following an April 6 debate that highlighted contrasts; low betting volumes amplify swings ahead of the filing deadline aftermath.