Recent US and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, rendering most enrichment facilities inoperable and trapping stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium underground or under rubble. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to key sites since mid-2025, with no verified enrichment activity ongoing. The September 2026 IAEA Board of Governors referral of Iran's case to the UN Security Council for safeguards violations underscores continued non-compliance but also highlights the program's stalled state. Construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain signals long-term intent, yet analysts assess no realistic path to weaponization or testing before 2027 given the physical destruction, inaccessible material, and diplomatic escalation. Trader consensus on "No" reflects these structural barriers in the narrow remaining window.