Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while leaving a stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium intact but unmonitored due to suspended IAEA access. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the breakout timeline to weapons-grade material remains approximately nine to twelve months, with no verified large-scale rebuilding underway as of late August 2026. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations tied to a memorandum of understanding, combined with sanctions and verification demands, reinforce trader expectations that Tehran will not achieve a nuclear device before the end of 2026. Realistic shifts could stem from a rapid Iranian decision to enrich existing material covertly, successful undetected reconstruction at peripheral sites, or collapse of current talks amid escalating regional tensions.