Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of its approximately 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble or in backfilled tunnels. The IAEA's September 2026 report notes no progress restoring inspector access to affected facilities, halting verification of inventories or activities and underscoring Iran's suspension of cooperation since the conflicts. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks under a memorandum of understanding emphasize status-quo maintenance and potential down-blending under supervision, with no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization steps. These factors, combined with Iran's apparent focus on negotiations amid damaged infrastructure, underpin the 95% trader-implied probability against a nuclear test before 2027.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% সম্ভাবনা
$251,646 Vol.
$251,646 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% সম্ভাবনা
$251,646 Vol.
$251,646 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of its approximately 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble or in backfilled tunnels. The IAEA's September 2026 report notes no progress restoring inspector access to affected facilities, halting verification of inventories or activities and underscoring Iran's suspension of cooperation since the conflicts. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks under a memorandum of understanding emphasize status-quo maintenance and potential down-blending under supervision, with no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization steps. These factors, combined with Iran's apparent focus on negotiations amid damaged infrastructure, underpin the 95% trader-implied probability against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$251,646শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of its approximately 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble or in backfilled tunnels. The IAEA's September 2026 report notes no progress restoring inspector access to affected facilities, halting verification of inventories or activities and underscoring Iran's suspension of cooperation since the conflicts. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks under a memorandum of understanding emphasize status-quo maintenance and potential down-blending under supervision, with no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization steps. These factors, combined with Iran's apparent focus on negotiations amid damaged infrastructure, underpin the 95% trader-implied probability against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$251,646শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of its approximately 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble or in backfilled tunnels. The IAEA's September 2026 report notes no progress restoring inspector access to affected facilities, halting verification of inventories or activities and underscoring Iran's suspension of cooperation since the conflicts. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks under a memorandum of understanding emphasize status-quo maintenance and potential down-blending under supervision, with no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization steps. These factors, combined with Iran's apparent focus on negotiations amid damaged infrastructure, underpin the 95% trader-implied probability against a nuclear test before 2027.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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