Iranian Kurdish opposition groups have formed coalitions focused on regime change and self-determination within a democratic Iran rather than outright secession. Their February 2026 coalition explicitly prioritizes federal arrangements and local administration in Kurdish-majority areas over independence, consistent with historical patterns where autonomy has been the dominant demand. Iranian security forces retain control over the region despite protests and cross-border activity, while neighboring states and major powers show no support for fragmentation. This alignment of objectives and capabilities underpins trader consensus that no declaration will occur. A sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum or a unilateral move by a fringe faction could still shift dynamics, though both remain remote.