Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the ECMWF and DWD show Munich's September 2 minimum likely settling near 13–14°C under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and dry conditions typical of late-summer high pressure. This keeps 9°C-or-below and 14°C outcomes nearly tied at roughly 50% and 48% market-implied probability, reflecting modest model spread in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Historical climatology places the average low at 12.1°C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal, yet traders weigh the chance of clearer skies or subtle cold-air advection that could push readings a degree or two lower. Updated model cycles and the official DWD forecast issued in the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around the 12–15°C range.