Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts for Miami on August 31 project a daily maximum near 89–91°F under mostly sunny morning conditions transitioning to scattered-to-likely afternoon thunderstorms, consistent with the region’s late-summer climatology of ~90°F average highs. Equal market-implied probabilities across the 84–93°F bins reflect uncertainty in the precise peak rather than any shift in the broader pattern. Key differentiating factors include the timing and coverage of sea-breeze-driven convection: earlier or more widespread storms increase cloud cover and evaporative cooling, capping temperatures in the upper 80s, while delayed development allows greater insolation and surface heating into the low 90s. High boundary-layer moisture and modest easterly flow further modulate instability and storm initiation without altering the overall warm, humid regime.