Persistent easterly flow and high humidity across South Florida are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited, with current National Weather Service and private model guidance converging on lows of 80–82°F for Miami on August 31. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms increase cloud cover and suppress temperature drops, while the urban heat island and warm Gulf Stream waters provide additional warming. Historical climatology shows an average low near 77.5°F, but recent nights have run 3–5°F above that amid the same pattern. The tightly bunched market-implied odds around the mid-70s to low-80s reflect genuine short-term forecast spread from minor timing differences in convection and boundary-layer mixing, with new model runs and evening observations the next key catalysts.