Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with DWD and ECMWF guidance, indicate a high-pressure regime over southern Germany with clear to mostly clear skies and light southwesterly winds on September 4. These conditions favor radiational cooling overnight, with the daily minimum expected near or just before sunrise. Ensemble guidance and current runs place the overnight low in the 16–18°C range at Munich stations, warmer than the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.8°C, though model spread and local microclimate effects (urban heat island, exact wind speeds) keep the precise value uncertain within roughly 13–18°C. Traders have priced this uncertainty evenly across those bins, with sharply lower odds assigned to colder outcomes that would require stronger cooling or unexpected cloud cover, and minimal probability for warmer readings inconsistent with the current stable pattern. Updated model runs and official DWD briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the key data for refining the minimum.