Recent forecast model runs from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo’s overnight minimum on August 28 likely falling between 24–26 °C amid persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and light northeasterly flow that limits radiational cooling. These conditions produce the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 25–28 °C outcomes. Differentiating factors include the precise timing and intensity of any rain-cooled air mass, which could drop the minimum toward 22 °C or below if heavier nocturnal showers develop, versus clearer breaks that might allow readings near or above 29 °C. Short-range ensemble spread remains moderate, reflecting typical uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention two days out.