Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader in early March 2026, following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination during U.S.-Israeli strikes, has anchored him at the center of regime institutions. The Assembly of Experts selected him with Revolutionary Guard backing, enabling consolidation of authority despite limited prior executive experience and traditional clerical resistance to hereditary succession. He has issued public statements on nuclear policy, regional security, and U.S. presence, consistent with ongoing leadership duties inside the country. No verified reports indicate plans for departure or exile. Ongoing conflict, internal power dynamics, and constitutional continuity requirements make any near-term exit highly improbable, keeping trader-implied probabilities for markets resolving by mid-2026 at very low levels.