Google's ongoing delays with Gemini 3.5 Pro, the next major Pro-tier large language model after the February 2026 release of 3.1 Pro, are the dominant driver of market sentiment. Despite May announcements positioning the model for a June rollout with advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities, repeated internal performance shortfalls have kept it unavailable as of mid-August, while faster Flash variants like 3.6 and 3.7 shipped in July and August. This pattern of missed deadlines and focus on lighter models has elevated the "no release by September 30" outcome to 42% implied probability, reflecting trader views that competitive pressures and technical hurdles make a near-term Pro launch unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts include any official DeepMind statements or API listings that could shift the closely watched September windows.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNo release by September 30 48%
September 9 15%
September 20 6%
September 21 6%
On or prior to September 1
4%
September 2
5%
September 3
5%
September 4
5%
September 5
5%
September 6
7%
September 7
5%
September 8
5%
September 9
15%
September 10
1%
September 11
5%
September 12
5%
September 13
6%
September 14
7%
September 15
7%
September 16
5%
September 17
5%
September 18
6%
September 19
5%
September 20
6%
September 21
6%
September 22
5%
September 23
6%
September 24
5%
September 25
5%
September 26
5%
September 27
5%
September 28
6%
September 29
5%
September 30
5%
No release by September 30
48%
No release by September 30 48%
September 9 15%
September 20 6%
September 21 6%
On or prior to September 1
4%
September 2
5%
September 3
5%
September 4
5%
September 5
5%
September 6
7%
September 7
5%
September 8
5%
September 9
15%
September 10
1%
September 11
5%
September 12
5%
September 13
6%
September 14
7%
September 15
7%
September 16
5%
September 17
5%
September 18
6%
September 19
5%
September 20
6%
September 21
6%
September 22
5%
September 23
6%
September 24
5%
September 25
5%
September 26
5%
September 27
5%
September 28
6%
September 29
5%
September 30
5%
No release by September 30
48%
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's ongoing delays with Gemini 3.5 Pro, the next major Pro-tier large language model after the February 2026 release of 3.1 Pro, are the dominant driver of market sentiment. Despite May announcements positioning the model for a June rollout with advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities, repeated internal performance shortfalls have kept it unavailable as of mid-August, while faster Flash variants like 3.6 and 3.7 shipped in July and August. This pattern of missed deadlines and focus on lighter models has elevated the "no release by September 30" outcome to 42% implied probability, reflecting trader views that competitive pressures and technical hurdles make a near-term Pro launch unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts include any official DeepMind statements or API listings that could shift the closely watched September windows.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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