Meta's rapid cadence on Muse Spark updates—1.1 in July, 1.2 in early August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the tight clustering of October probabilities for version 1.4 or higher. Each release has delivered measurable gains in coding efficiency and agentic task performance, fueled by Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on long-horizon workflows and multimodal capabilities. Traders appear to price in continued four-week iteration cycles amid competition from frontier labs, while noting the lack of confirmed timelines or teaser announcements since the latest drop. Key swing factors include potential open-weights rollout signals, Meta's earnings commentary, or internal benchmarks that could accelerate or delay the next iteration.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডOctober 21 24%
October 29 24%
October 6 14%
October 15 14%
নতুন
নতুন
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
16%
October 2
12%
October 3
13%
October 4
12%
October 5
13%
October 6
14%
October 7
14%
October 8
23%
October 9
9%
October 10
13%
October 11
13%
October 12
12%
October 13
8%
October 14
9%
October 15
14%
October 16
13%
October 17
8%
October 18
8%
October 19
14%
October 20
8%
October 21
24%
October 22
9%
October 23
13%
October 24
14%
October 25
13%
October 26
24%
October 27
7%
October 28
13%
October 29
24%
October 30
9%
October 31
14%
No release by October 31
9%
October 21 24%
October 29 24%
October 6 14%
October 15 14%
নতুন
নতুন
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
$24 Vol.
16%
October 2
$24 Vol.
12%
October 3
$24 Vol.
13%
October 4
$24 Vol.
12%
October 5
$24 Vol.
13%
October 6
$24 Vol.
14%
October 7
$24 Vol.
14%
October 8
$24 Vol.
23%
October 9
$29 Vol.
9%
October 10
$24 Vol.
13%
October 11
$24 Vol.
13%
October 12
$24 Vol.
12%
October 13
$24 Vol.
8%
October 14
$24 Vol.
9%
October 15
$24 Vol.
14%
October 16
$24 Vol.
13%
October 17
$24 Vol.
8%
October 18
$24 Vol.
8%
October 19
$24 Vol.
14%
October 20
$24 Vol.
8%
October 21
$24 Vol.
24%
October 22
$24 Vol.
9%
October 23
$24 Vol.
13%
October 24
$24 Vol.
14%
October 25
$24 Vol.
13%
October 26
$24 Vol.
24%
October 27
$24 Vol.
7%
October 28
$24 Vol.
13%
October 29
$24 Vol.
24%
October 30
$24 Vol.
9%
October 31
$32 Vol.
14%
No release by October 31
$24 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid cadence on Muse Spark updates—1.1 in July, 1.2 in early August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the tight clustering of October probabilities for version 1.4 or higher. Each release has delivered measurable gains in coding efficiency and agentic task performance, fueled by Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on long-horizon workflows and multimodal capabilities. Traders appear to price in continued four-week iteration cycles amid competition from frontier labs, while noting the lack of confirmed timelines or teaser announcements since the latest drop. Key swing factors include potential open-weights rollout signals, Meta's earnings commentary, or internal benchmarks that could accelerate or delay the next iteration.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
ভলিউম
$787শেষ তারিখ
Oct 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid cadence on Muse Spark updates—1.1 in July, 1.2 in early August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the tight clustering of October probabilities for version 1.4 or higher. Each release has delivered measurable gains in coding efficiency and agentic task performance, fueled by Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on long-horizon workflows and multimodal capabilities. Traders appear to price in continued four-week iteration cycles amid competition from frontier labs, while noting the lack of confirmed timelines or teaser announcements since the latest drop. Key swing factors include potential open-weights rollout signals, Meta's earnings commentary, or internal benchmarks that could accelerate or delay the next iteration.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$787শেষ তারিখ
Oct 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Meta's rapid cadence on Muse Spark updates—1.1 in July, 1.2 in early August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the tight clustering of October probabilities for version 1.4 or higher. Each release has delivered measurable gains in coding efficiency and agentic task performance, fueled by Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on long-horizon workflows and multimodal capabilities. Traders appear to price in continued four-week iteration cycles amid competition from frontier labs, while noting the lack of confirmed timelines or teaser announcements since the latest drop. Key swing factors include potential open-weights rollout signals, Meta's earnings commentary, or internal benchmarks that could accelerate or delay the next iteration.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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