Polymarket traders price a 30% implied probability of no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, leading closely contested outcomes amid a recent $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026, at an $852 billion post-money valuation that bolsters high-cap bins like 750B–1T (25.5%) and 500–750B (24.0%). Primary drivers include internal tensions, with CFO Sarah Friar flagging CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 timeline as overly aggressive due to $121 billion projected 2028 compute spend, revenue growth slowdowns, and profitability delayed until 2029—elevating execution risks in a hyper-competitive landscape against Anthropic ($350 billion valuation) and xAI. Swing factors hinge on organizational readiness, regulatory scrutiny, and macro risk appetite, with Q4 listing talks and retail share reservations as key near-term catalysts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO by December 31, 2027 30%
750B–1T 20%
1T–1.25T 14%
1.25T–1.5T 11%
$14,113 Vol.
$14,113 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
7%
500–750B
24%
750B–1T
20%
1T–1.25T
17%
1.25T–1.5T
11%
1.5T+
14%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
30%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 30%
750B–1T 20%
1T–1.25T 14%
1.25T–1.5T 11%
$14,113 Vol.
$14,113 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$62 Vol.
7%
500–750B
$84 Vol.
24%
750B–1T
$97 Vol.
20%
1T–1.25T
$2,920 Vol.
17%
1.25T–1.5T
$126 Vol.
11%
1.5T+
$42 Vol.
14%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$10,783 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price a 30% implied probability of no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, leading closely contested outcomes amid a recent $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026, at an $852 billion post-money valuation that bolsters high-cap bins like 750B–1T (25.5%) and 500–750B (24.0%). Primary drivers include internal tensions, with CFO Sarah Friar flagging CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 timeline as overly aggressive due to $121 billion projected 2028 compute spend, revenue growth slowdowns, and profitability delayed until 2029—elevating execution risks in a hyper-competitive landscape against Anthropic ($350 billion valuation) and xAI. Swing factors hinge on organizational readiness, regulatory scrutiny, and macro risk appetite, with Q4 listing talks and retail share reservations as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
ভলিউম
$14,113শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price a 30% implied probability of no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, leading closely contested outcomes amid a recent $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026, at an $852 billion post-money valuation that bolsters high-cap bins like 750B–1T (25.5%) and 500–750B (24.0%). Primary drivers include internal tensions, with CFO Sarah Friar flagging CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 timeline as overly aggressive due to $121 billion projected 2028 compute spend, revenue growth slowdowns, and profitability delayed until 2029—elevating execution risks in a hyper-competitive landscape against Anthropic ($350 billion valuation) and xAI. Swing factors hinge on organizational readiness, regulatory scrutiny, and macro risk appetite, with Q4 listing talks and retail share reservations as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
ভলিউম
$14,113শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 30% implied probability of no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, leading closely contested outcomes amid a recent $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026, at an $852 billion post-money valuation that bolsters high-cap bins like 750B–1T (25.5%) and 500–750B (24.0%). Primary drivers include internal tensions, with CFO Sarah Friar flagging CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 timeline as overly aggressive due to $121 billion projected 2028 compute spend, revenue growth slowdowns, and profitability delayed until 2029—elevating execution risks in a hyper-competitive landscape against Anthropic ($350 billion valuation) and xAI. Swing factors hinge on organizational readiness, regulatory scrutiny, and macro risk appetite, with Q4 listing talks and retail share reservations as key near-term catalysts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা