Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by recent internal turmoil including a high-profile rift between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar, who flagged the aggressive timeline as unfeasible amid organizational gaps and projected $121 billion compute spending through 2028 with profitability delayed until 2029. Compounding this, April 17 departures of key executives—Sora founder, AI for Science VP, and enterprise CTO—signaled project cancellations like Sora and Prism to prioritize revenue-generating enterprise tools such as GPT-Rosalind, while shareholders mull Altman's replacement over side-project influences. Despite a fresh $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation, regulatory scrutiny and leadership instability temper optimism for trillion-dollar cap outcomes, with upcoming catalysts including further hires and SEC preparations.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডওপেনএআই আইপিও ক্লোজিং মার্কেট ক্যাপ
ওপেনএআই আইপিও ক্লোজিং মার্কেট ক্যাপ
৩১ ডিসেম্বর, ২০২৬-এর মধ্যে আইপিও নয় 65%
১.২৫টি–১.৫টি 6.9%
১.৫ ট্রিলিয়ন+ 6.7%
৭৫০বি–১টি 5.7%
$1,581,711 Vol.
$1,581,711 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<৫০০বি
5%
৫০০–৭৫০বি
4%
৭৫০বি–১টি
6%
১টি–১.২৫টি
4%
১.২৫টি–১.৫টি
7%
১.৫ ট্রিলিয়ন+
7%
৩১ ডিসেম্বর, ২০২৬-এর মধ্যে আইপিও নয়
65%
৩১ ডিসেম্বর, ২০২৬-এর মধ্যে আইপিও নয় 65%
১.২৫টি–১.৫টি 6.9%
১.৫ ট্রিলিয়ন+ 6.7%
৭৫০বি–১টি 5.7%
$1,581,711 Vol.
$1,581,711 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<৫০০বি
$259,843 Vol.
5%
৫০০–৭৫০বি
$141,639 Vol.
4%
৭৫০বি–১টি
$135,259 Vol.
6%
১টি–১.২৫টি
$175,516 Vol.
4%
১.২৫টি–১.৫টি
$489,832 Vol.
7%
১.৫ ট্রিলিয়ন+
$94,923 Vol.
7%
৩১ ডিসেম্বর, ২০২৬-এর মধ্যে আইপিও নয়
$284,699 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by recent internal turmoil including a high-profile rift between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar, who flagged the aggressive timeline as unfeasible amid organizational gaps and projected $121 billion compute spending through 2028 with profitability delayed until 2029. Compounding this, April 17 departures of key executives—Sora founder, AI for Science VP, and enterprise CTO—signaled project cancellations like Sora and Prism to prioritize revenue-generating enterprise tools such as GPT-Rosalind, while shareholders mull Altman's replacement over side-project influences. Despite a fresh $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation, regulatory scrutiny and leadership instability temper optimism for trillion-dollar cap outcomes, with upcoming catalysts including further hires and SEC preparations.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,581,711শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by recent internal turmoil including a high-profile rift between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar, who flagged the aggressive timeline as unfeasible amid organizational gaps and projected $121 billion compute spending through 2028 with profitability delayed until 2029. Compounding this, April 17 departures of key executives—Sora founder, AI for Science VP, and enterprise CTO—signaled project cancellations like Sora and Prism to prioritize revenue-generating enterprise tools such as GPT-Rosalind, while shareholders mull Altman's replacement over side-project influences. Despite a fresh $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation, regulatory scrutiny and leadership instability temper optimism for trillion-dollar cap outcomes, with upcoming catalysts including further hires and SEC preparations.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
ভলিউম
$1,581,711শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by recent internal turmoil including a high-profile rift between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar, who flagged the aggressive timeline as unfeasible amid organizational gaps and projected $121 billion compute spending through 2028 with profitability delayed until 2029. Compounding this, April 17 departures of key executives—Sora founder, AI for Science VP, and enterprise CTO—signaled project cancellations like Sora and Prism to prioritize revenue-generating enterprise tools such as GPT-Rosalind, while shareholders mull Altman's replacement over side-project influences. Despite a fresh $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation, regulatory scrutiny and leadership instability temper optimism for trillion-dollar cap outcomes, with upcoming catalysts including further hires and SEC preparations.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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