Ongoing summit inflation at Kīlauea, tracked by Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeters such as Uēkahuna, drives trader sentiment for Episode 53 onset after Episode 52 ended in late July. Magma recharge produces steady positive tilt trends, with current models narrowing the fountaining window to August 8–12 based on inflation rates and the abrupt post-episode switch from deflation. The close split between August 9–10 and 11–12 reflects uncertainty in exact timing within this narrow window, as small variations in daily tilt accumulation or vent glow can shift the pressure threshold for lava fountaining. Historical cycles of episodic summit activity every one to three weeks provide context, while real-time seismic, gas, and deformation data will refine forecasts ahead of resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWhen will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
When will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
Aug 11-12 37%
Aug 9-10 35%
Aug 13 or later 21%
Aug 8 or earlier 5%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
5%
Aug 9-10
35%
Aug 11-12
27%
Aug 13 or later
21%
Aug 11-12 37%
Aug 9-10 35%
Aug 13 or later 21%
Aug 8 or earlier 5%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
$231 Vol.
5%
Aug 9-10
$138 Vol.
35%
Aug 11-12
$87 Vol.
27%
Aug 13 or later
$679 Vol.
21%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Ongoing summit inflation at Kīlauea, tracked by Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeters such as Uēkahuna, drives trader sentiment for Episode 53 onset after Episode 52 ended in late July. Magma recharge produces steady positive tilt trends, with current models narrowing the fountaining window to August 8–12 based on inflation rates and the abrupt post-episode switch from deflation. The close split between August 9–10 and 11–12 reflects uncertainty in exact timing within this narrow window, as small variations in daily tilt accumulation or vent glow can shift the pressure threshold for lava fountaining. Historical cycles of episodic summit activity every one to three weeks provide context, while real-time seismic, gas, and deformation data will refine forecasts ahead of resolution.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,135শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Ongoing summit inflation at Kīlauea, tracked by Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeters such as Uēkahuna, drives trader sentiment for Episode 53 onset after Episode 52 ended in late July. Magma recharge produces steady positive tilt trends, with current models narrowing the fountaining window to August 8–12 based on inflation rates and the abrupt post-episode switch from deflation. The close split between August 9–10 and 11–12 reflects uncertainty in exact timing within this narrow window, as small variations in daily tilt accumulation or vent glow can shift the pressure threshold for lava fountaining. Historical cycles of episodic summit activity every one to three weeks provide context, while real-time seismic, gas, and deformation data will refine forecasts ahead of resolution.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
ভলিউম
$1,135শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing summit inflation at Kīlauea, tracked by Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeters such as Uēkahuna, drives trader sentiment for Episode 53 onset after Episode 52 ended in late July. Magma recharge produces steady positive tilt trends, with current models narrowing the fountaining window to August 8–12 based on inflation rates and the abrupt post-episode switch from deflation. The close split between August 9–10 and 11–12 reflects uncertainty in exact timing within this narrow window, as small variations in daily tilt accumulation or vent glow can shift the pressure threshold for lava fountaining. Historical cycles of episodic summit activity every one to three weeks provide context, while real-time seismic, gas, and deformation data will refine forecasts ahead of resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা