Trader sentiment in the "Which banks will fail by June 30?" market reflects heightened concerns over regional banks' exposure to a $875 billion–$1.5 trillion commercial real estate (CRE) debt maturity wall in 2026, particularly office loans amid 20% vacancy rates in major cities and refinancing gaps. The January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—tied to niche real estate losses—underscored vulnerabilities, though overall FDIC failures remain low (one in 2026 to date, two in 2025). KeyBank, US Bank, and Wells Fargo lead implied odds due to elevated CRE concentrations relative to peers, with recent Q1 2026 earnings highlighting portfolio concerns like data centers and energy loans. Watch bank stress test results, Q2 earnings, and CRE delinquency data for shifts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড30 জুনের মধ্যে কোন ব্যাঙ্কগুলি ব্যর্থ হবে?
30 জুনের মধ্যে কোন ব্যাঙ্কগুলি ব্যর্থ হবে?
$428,778 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
KeyBank
48%
Truist
11%
BNY
9%
Morgan Stanley
6%
RBC
6%
Lloyds
5%
BMO
4%
Bank of America
4%
Citigroup
2%
Santander
2%
Goldman Sachs
2%
UBS
2%
JPMorgan Chase
1%
Deutsche Bank
1%
HSBC
1%
Scotiabank
1%
BNP Paribas
1%
Wells Fargo
48%
US Bank
48%
$428,778 Vol.
KeyBank
$83 Vol.
48%
Truist
$5 Vol.
11%
BNY
$5 Vol.
9%
Morgan Stanley
$277 Vol.
6%
RBC
$0 Vol.
6%
Lloyds
$24 Vol.
5%
BMO
$16 Vol.
4%
Bank of America
$323 Vol.
4%
Citigroup
$9,179 Vol.
2%
Santander
$24 Vol.
2%
Goldman Sachs
$19,680 Vol.
2%
UBS
$30,973 Vol.
2%
JPMorgan Chase
$107,345 Vol.
1%
Deutsche Bank
$153,000 Vol.
1%
HSBC
$38,385 Vol.
1%
Scotiabank
$46,849 Vol.
1%
BNP Paribas
$22,317 Vol.
1%
Wells Fargo
$166 Vol.
48%
US Bank
$127 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in the "Which banks will fail by June 30?" market reflects heightened concerns over regional banks' exposure to a $875 billion–$1.5 trillion commercial real estate (CRE) debt maturity wall in 2026, particularly office loans amid 20% vacancy rates in major cities and refinancing gaps. The January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—tied to niche real estate losses—underscored vulnerabilities, though overall FDIC failures remain low (one in 2026 to date, two in 2025). KeyBank, US Bank, and Wells Fargo lead implied odds due to elevated CRE concentrations relative to peers, with recent Q1 2026 earnings highlighting portfolio concerns like data centers and energy loans. Watch bank stress test results, Q2 earnings, and CRE delinquency data for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ET
ভলিউম
$428,778শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in the "Which banks will fail by June 30?" market reflects heightened concerns over regional banks' exposure to a $875 billion–$1.5 trillion commercial real estate (CRE) debt maturity wall in 2026, particularly office loans amid 20% vacancy rates in major cities and refinancing gaps. The January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—tied to niche real estate losses—underscored vulnerabilities, though overall FDIC failures remain low (one in 2026 to date, two in 2025). KeyBank, US Bank, and Wells Fargo lead implied odds due to elevated CRE concentrations relative to peers, with recent Q1 2026 earnings highlighting portfolio concerns like data centers and energy loans. Watch bank stress test results, Q2 earnings, and CRE delinquency data for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$428,778শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment in the "Which banks will fail by June 30?" market reflects heightened concerns over regional banks' exposure to a $875 billion–$1.5 trillion commercial real estate (CRE) debt maturity wall in 2026, particularly office loans amid 20% vacancy rates in major cities and refinancing gaps. The January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—tied to niche real estate losses—underscored vulnerabilities, though overall FDIC failures remain low (one in 2026 to date, two in 2025). KeyBank, US Bank, and Wells Fargo lead implied odds due to elevated CRE concentrations relative to peers, with recent Q1 2026 earnings highlighting portfolio concerns like data centers and energy loans. Watch bank stress test results, Q2 earnings, and CRE delinquency data for shifts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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