US-Iran hostilities since the February 2026 joint airstrikes have centered on targeted strikes, naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions rather than ground operations. As of August 2026, the Trump administration has shifted emphasis to intensified economic measures, including secondary sanctions threats and an "economic D-Day" campaign, with officials describing further military action as limited. No large-scale troop deployments or mobilization signals for occupation have emerged, and analysts cite substantial logistical barriers, force protection risks, and congressional constraints in the narrow window before December 31, 2026. This pattern of air, naval, and economic pressure underpins trader consensus favoring no US invasion by the deadline.