Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85% implied probability that Apple Vision Pro 2 will not launch before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements, supply chain signals, or teasers as of late April 2026—now just eight months from year-end. The October 2025 M5 chip upgrade to the original Vision Pro served as an interim hardware refresh amid sluggish sales and ecosystem maturation via visionOS 2.4 updates with Apple Intelligence, delaying a full successor. Persistent rumors from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and others have shifted toward a 2027 timeline or pivot to a lighter "Vision Air," aligning with Apple's typical 2-3 year mixed-reality hardware cycles. Watch WWDC in June for potential reveals, though history suggests conservative timelines amid competitive pressures from Meta Quest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
Ja
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85% implied probability that Apple Vision Pro 2 will not launch before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements, supply chain signals, or teasers as of late April 2026—now just eight months from year-end. The October 2025 M5 chip upgrade to the original Vision Pro served as an interim hardware refresh amid sluggish sales and ecosystem maturation via visionOS 2.4 updates with Apple Intelligence, delaying a full successor. Persistent rumors from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and others have shifted toward a 2027 timeline or pivot to a lighter "Vision Air," aligning with Apple's typical 2-3 year mixed-reality hardware cycles. Watch WWDC in June for potential reveals, though history suggests conservative timelines amid competitive pressures from Meta Quest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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