Apple's long-standing pattern of annual flagship smartphone releases underpins the 96.2% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, as traders price in the company's reliable September cadence and multi-year supply chain planning that typically follows the iPhone 17 expected in 2025. This near-certain consensus reflects verified historical execution across hardware generations, processor advancements, and global manufacturing coordination. Still, realistic risks remain from major component shortages, significant redesign delays, or regulatory interventions in key markets that could compress timelines, though such disruptions have proven infrequent in Apple's track record.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$112,552 Vol.
$112,552 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$112,552 Vol.
$112,552 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing pattern of annual flagship smartphone releases underpins the 96.2% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, as traders price in the company's reliable September cadence and multi-year supply chain planning that typically follows the iPhone 17 expected in 2025. This near-certain consensus reflects verified historical execution across hardware generations, processor advancements, and global manufacturing coordination. Still, realistic risks remain from major component shortages, significant redesign delays, or regulatory interventions in key markets that could compress timelines, though such disruptions have proven infrequent in Apple's track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$112,552Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing pattern of annual flagship smartphone releases underpins the 96.2% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, as traders price in the company's reliable September cadence and multi-year supply chain planning that typically follows the iPhone 17 expected in 2025. This near-certain consensus reflects verified historical execution across hardware generations, processor advancements, and global manufacturing coordination. Still, realistic risks remain from major component shortages, significant redesign delays, or regulatory interventions in key markets that could compress timelines, though such disruptions have proven infrequent in Apple's track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$112,552Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing pattern of annual flagship smartphone releases underpins the 96.2% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026, as traders price in the company's reliable September cadence and multi-year supply chain planning that typically follows the iPhone 17 expected in 2025. This near-certain consensus reflects verified historical execution across hardware generations, processor advancements, and global manufacturing coordination. Still, realistic risks remain from major component shortages, significant redesign delays, or regulatory interventions in key markets that could compress timelines, though such disruptions have proven infrequent in Apple's track record.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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