Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship smartphone underpins the overwhelming market consensus on an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new hardware version each September for more than a decade, supported by predictable supply-chain cycles and software updates aligned to that window. Industry reporting on component sourcing and manufacturing timelines continues to track this pattern, leaving little room for deviation in trader assessments. Even with probabilities this elevated, realistic risks such as component shortages, production delays, or regulatory reviews in major markets could still alter exact timing without derailing the overall schedule.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$112,152 Vol.
$112,152 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$112,152 Vol.
$112,152 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship smartphone underpins the overwhelming market consensus on an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new hardware version each September for more than a decade, supported by predictable supply-chain cycles and software updates aligned to that window. Industry reporting on component sourcing and manufacturing timelines continues to track this pattern, leaving little room for deviation in trader assessments. Even with probabilities this elevated, realistic risks such as component shortages, production delays, or regulatory reviews in major markets could still alter exact timing without derailing the overall schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$112,152Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship smartphone underpins the overwhelming market consensus on an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new hardware version each September for more than a decade, supported by predictable supply-chain cycles and software updates aligned to that window. Industry reporting on component sourcing and manufacturing timelines continues to track this pattern, leaving little room for deviation in trader assessments. Even with probabilities this elevated, realistic risks such as component shortages, production delays, or regulatory reviews in major markets could still alter exact timing without derailing the overall schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$112,152Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship smartphone underpins the overwhelming market consensus on an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new hardware version each September for more than a decade, supported by predictable supply-chain cycles and software updates aligned to that window. Industry reporting on component sourcing and manufacturing timelines continues to track this pattern, leaving little room for deviation in trader assessments. Even with probabilities this elevated, realistic risks such as component shortages, production delays, or regulatory reviews in major markets could still alter exact timing without derailing the overall schedule.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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