Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new iPhone model each September underpins the 100% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Trader consensus reflects the company's predictable annual cadence, established supply-chain timelines, and ongoing development of incremental hardware and software features such as advanced AI capabilities in large language models. While near-certain positioning leaves little room for doubt, realistic disruptions could still emerge from component shortages, regulatory delays in major markets, or unexpected shifts in Apple's product roadmap that push timelines into early 2027. Key upcoming milestones include developer conferences and earnings updates that could confirm or adjust expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
>99% Chance
$235,392 Vol.
$235,392 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
>99% Chance
$235,392 Vol.
$235,392 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new iPhone model each September underpins the 100% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Trader consensus reflects the company's predictable annual cadence, established supply-chain timelines, and ongoing development of incremental hardware and software features such as advanced AI capabilities in large language models. While near-certain positioning leaves little room for doubt, realistic disruptions could still emerge from component shortages, regulatory delays in major markets, or unexpected shifts in Apple's product roadmap that push timelines into early 2027. Key upcoming milestones include developer conferences and earnings updates that could confirm or adjust expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$235,392Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new iPhone model each September underpins the 100% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Trader consensus reflects the company's predictable annual cadence, established supply-chain timelines, and ongoing development of incremental hardware and software features such as advanced AI capabilities in large language models. While near-certain positioning leaves little room for doubt, realistic disruptions could still emerge from component shortages, regulatory delays in major markets, or unexpected shifts in Apple's product roadmap that push timelines into early 2027. Key upcoming milestones include developer conferences and earnings updates that could confirm or adjust expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$235,392Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new iPhone model each September underpins the 100% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Trader consensus reflects the company's predictable annual cadence, established supply-chain timelines, and ongoing development of incremental hardware and software features such as advanced AI capabilities in large language models. While near-certain positioning leaves little room for doubt, realistic disruptions could still emerge from component shortages, regulatory delays in major markets, or unexpected shifts in Apple's product roadmap that push timelines into early 2027. Key upcoming milestones include developer conferences and earnings updates that could confirm or adjust expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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