Apple's long-standing annual hardware refresh cycle, with flagship models consistently launching each September, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that at least some iPhone 18 variants will reach the market in 2026. Recent supply-chain reporting and analyst consensus indicate the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, alongside the first foldable iPhone, remain on track for a fall debut, while base models shift to early 2027 under a staggered strategy. This approach aligns with Apple's historical precedent of incremental yearly updates and ongoing component sourcing for 2026 silicon. Traders assign limited weight to potential disruptions such as production delays or regulatory hurdles, given the absence of credible signals that the premium tier will miss the calendar year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$112,633 Vol.
$112,633 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$112,633 Vol.
$112,633 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual hardware refresh cycle, with flagship models consistently launching each September, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that at least some iPhone 18 variants will reach the market in 2026. Recent supply-chain reporting and analyst consensus indicate the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, alongside the first foldable iPhone, remain on track for a fall debut, while base models shift to early 2027 under a staggered strategy. This approach aligns with Apple's historical precedent of incremental yearly updates and ongoing component sourcing for 2026 silicon. Traders assign limited weight to potential disruptions such as production delays or regulatory hurdles, given the absence of credible signals that the premium tier will miss the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$112,633Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual hardware refresh cycle, with flagship models consistently launching each September, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that at least some iPhone 18 variants will reach the market in 2026. Recent supply-chain reporting and analyst consensus indicate the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, alongside the first foldable iPhone, remain on track for a fall debut, while base models shift to early 2027 under a staggered strategy. This approach aligns with Apple's historical precedent of incremental yearly updates and ongoing component sourcing for 2026 silicon. Traders assign limited weight to potential disruptions such as production delays or regulatory hurdles, given the absence of credible signals that the premium tier will miss the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$112,633Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing annual hardware refresh cycle, with flagship models consistently launching each September, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that at least some iPhone 18 variants will reach the market in 2026. Recent supply-chain reporting and analyst consensus indicate the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, alongside the first foldable iPhone, remain on track for a fall debut, while base models shift to early 2027 under a staggered strategy. This approach aligns with Apple's historical precedent of incremental yearly updates and ongoing component sourcing for 2026 silicon. Traders assign limited weight to potential disruptions such as production delays or regulatory hurdles, given the absence of credible signals that the premium tier will miss the calendar year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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