Traders see claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the clear leader at 97% implied probability because its adaptive thinking mode, 1M-token context window, and gains in long-horizon agentic coding and self-verification continue to top frontier benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and Humanity’s Last Exam even after the May release of Opus 4.8. The two-day window to June 20 leaves little time for a new model or major leaderboard update to shift consensus. A rapid rollout of additional Fable 5 evaluations showing decisive gains on the same metrics, or an unexpected competitive release from another lab, remain the main realistic paths that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiertclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
Other <1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
$29,706 Vol.
$29,706 Vol.
20. Juni 2026
claude-opus-4-6
No
Other
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes
claude-fable-5
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
Other <1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
$29,706 Vol.
$29,706 Vol.
20. Juni 2026
claude-opus-4-6
$2,280 Vol.
No
Other
$4,718 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$10,841 Vol.
Yes
claude-fable-5
$11,866 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the clear leader at 97% implied probability because its adaptive thinking mode, 1M-token context window, and gains in long-horizon agentic coding and self-verification continue to top frontier benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and Humanity’s Last Exam even after the May release of Opus 4.8. The two-day window to June 20 leaves little time for a new model or major leaderboard update to shift consensus. A rapid rollout of additional Fable 5 evaluations showing decisive gains on the same metrics, or an unexpected competitive release from another lab, remain the main realistic paths that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$29,706Enddatum
20. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the clear leader at 97% implied probability because its adaptive thinking mode, 1M-token context window, and gains in long-horizon agentic coding and self-verification continue to top frontier benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and Humanity’s Last Exam even after the May release of Opus 4.8. The two-day window to June 20 leaves little time for a new model or major leaderboard update to shift consensus. A rapid rollout of additional Fable 5 evaluations showing decisive gains on the same metrics, or an unexpected competitive release from another lab, remain the main realistic paths that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$29,706Enddatum
20. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
Traders see claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the clear leader at 97% implied probability because its adaptive thinking mode, 1M-token context window, and gains in long-horizon agentic coding and self-verification continue to top frontier benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and Humanity’s Last Exam even after the May release of Opus 4.8. The two-day window to June 20 leaves little time for a new model or major leaderboard update to shift consensus. A rapid rollout of additional Fable 5 evaluations showing decisive gains on the same metrics, or an unexpected competitive release from another lab, remain the main realistic paths that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen