Elevated geopolitical risks from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket traders' 66% implied probability that June WTI crude settles above $84. Supply disruptions have cut Middle East output by more than 11 million barrels per day, triggering record global inventory draws of 6.3 million barrels per day in the second quarter and pushing spot prices near $88–$90 recently. Although May saw a temporary pullback on ceasefire speculation, persistent shipping constraints and EIA forecasts for $105 Brent averages in June and July continue to anchor market-implied odds well above $84, with lower buckets reflecting limited probability of rapid normalization before month-end settlement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWorauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
>$84 66%
$77-$84 19%
70–77 $ 6.8%
$63-$70 2.8%
$222,680 Vol.
$222,680 Vol.
< $42
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
70–77 $
7%
$77-$84
19%
>$84
66%
>$84 66%
$77-$84 19%
70–77 $ 6.8%
$63-$70 2.8%
$222,680 Vol.
$222,680 Vol.
< $42
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
70–77 $
7%
$77-$84
19%
>$84
66%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated geopolitical risks from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket traders' 66% implied probability that June WTI crude settles above $84. Supply disruptions have cut Middle East output by more than 11 million barrels per day, triggering record global inventory draws of 6.3 million barrels per day in the second quarter and pushing spot prices near $88–$90 recently. Although May saw a temporary pullback on ceasefire speculation, persistent shipping constraints and EIA forecasts for $105 Brent averages in June and July continue to anchor market-implied odds well above $84, with lower buckets reflecting limited probability of rapid normalization before month-end settlement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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