Farage's resignation in early July 2026 to trigger the August 13 by-election has kept the contest centered on his personal support in Clacton, where Reform UK secured 46% in 2024. With Labour, Conservatives, and other major parties boycotting the race, the field of 34 candidates fragments opposition votes, elevating novelty contender Count Binface as the highest-profile alternative. Recent local polling from Survation indicates Farage capturing around 73% on low turnout, consistent with trader pricing that clusters in the 60–80% bands. The race remains tight between those ranges due to uncertainty over turnout levels, the impact of numerous independents on vote splitting, and limited recent constituency-specific data. Developments such as shifts in local campaigning intensity or unexpected consolidation behind a single challenger could widen gaps in expected share before polls close.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertClacton-Nachwahl: Nigel Farage Vote %
Clacton-Nachwahl: Nigel Farage Vote %
Farage 70–80 % 40.9%
Farage 60–70 % 37%
Farage 80%+ 14%
Farage 50–60 % 7%
$152,691 Vol.
$152,691 Vol.
30. Juni 2027
Farage <40%
2%
Farage 40–50 %
2%
Farage 50–60 %
7%
Farage 60–70 %
37%
Farage 70–80 %
41%
Farage 80%+
14%
Farage 70–80 % 40.9%
Farage 60–70 % 37%
Farage 80%+ 14%
Farage 50–60 % 7%
$152,691 Vol.
$152,691 Vol.
30. Juni 2027
Farage <40%
$14,224 Vol.
2%
Farage 40–50 %
$15,766 Vol.
2%
Farage 50–60 %
$18,495 Vol.
7%
Farage 60–70 %
$25,320 Vol.
37%
Farage 70–80 %
$41,194 Vol.
41%
Farage 80%+
$37,693 Vol.
14%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Farage's resignation in early July 2026 to trigger the August 13 by-election has kept the contest centered on his personal support in Clacton, where Reform UK secured 46% in 2024. With Labour, Conservatives, and other major parties boycotting the race, the field of 34 candidates fragments opposition votes, elevating novelty contender Count Binface as the highest-profile alternative. Recent local polling from Survation indicates Farage capturing around 73% on low turnout, consistent with trader pricing that clusters in the 60–80% bands. The race remains tight between those ranges due to uncertainty over turnout levels, the impact of numerous independents on vote splitting, and limited recent constituency-specific data. Developments such as shifts in local campaigning intensity or unexpected consolidation behind a single challenger could widen gaps in expected share before polls close.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Markt eröffnet: Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volumen
$152,691Enddatum
30. Juni 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Farage's resignation in early July 2026 to trigger the August 13 by-election has kept the contest centered on his personal support in Clacton, where Reform UK secured 46% in 2024. With Labour, Conservatives, and other major parties boycotting the race, the field of 34 candidates fragments opposition votes, elevating novelty contender Count Binface as the highest-profile alternative. Recent local polling from Survation indicates Farage capturing around 73% on low turnout, consistent with trader pricing that clusters in the 60–80% bands. The race remains tight between those ranges due to uncertainty over turnout levels, the impact of numerous independents on vote splitting, and limited recent constituency-specific data. Developments such as shifts in local campaigning intensity or unexpected consolidation behind a single challenger could widen gaps in expected share before polls close.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volumen
$152,691Enddatum
30. Juni 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Farage's resignation in early July 2026 to trigger the August 13 by-election has kept the contest centered on his personal support in Clacton, where Reform UK secured 46% in 2024. With Labour, Conservatives, and other major parties boycotting the race, the field of 34 candidates fragments opposition votes, elevating novelty contender Count Binface as the highest-profile alternative. Recent local polling from Survation indicates Farage capturing around 73% on low turnout, consistent with trader pricing that clusters in the 60–80% bands. The race remains tight between those ranges due to uncertainty over turnout levels, the impact of numerous independents on vote splitting, and limited recent constituency-specific data. Developments such as shifts in local campaigning intensity or unexpected consolidation behind a single challenger could widen gaps in expected share before polls close.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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