Recent UK CPI data show inflation rising to 2.9% in July 2026 from 2.6% in June, driven by energy price pass-through amid geopolitical tensions. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a peak near 3.2% in 2026 Q4 before easing toward 1.9%, consistent with independent forecasts averaging 3.3–3.4% for Q4. Household inflation expectations have climbed to 3.9% for the year ahead, while labor-market slack and fading base effects exert downward pressure. These crosscurrents—energy volatility versus policy and demand restraint—underpin the closely matched market-implied probabilities between the 3.5–3.9% and 2.5–2.9% ranges for the 2026 annual rate.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJährliche Inflation Großbritanniens 2026
3,5–3,9 % 23.1%
2,5–2,9 % 22.1%
2,0–2,4 % 10.7%
4,0-4,4 % 11%
$75,227 Vol.
$75,227 Vol.
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–1,4 %
3%
1,5–1,9 %
4%
2,0–2,4 %
11%
2,5–2,9 %
22%
3,0–3,4 %
-
3,5–3,9 %
23%
4,0-4,4 %
11%
4,5 %+
8%
3,5–3,9 % 23.1%
2,5–2,9 % 22.1%
2,0–2,4 % 10.7%
4,0-4,4 % 11%
$75,227 Vol.
$75,227 Vol.
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–1,4 %
3%
1,5–1,9 %
4%
2,0–2,4 %
11%
2,5–2,9 %
22%
3,0–3,4 %
-
3,5–3,9 %
23%
4,0-4,4 %
11%
4,5 %+
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK CPI data show inflation rising to 2.9% in July 2026 from 2.6% in June, driven by energy price pass-through amid geopolitical tensions. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a peak near 3.2% in 2026 Q4 before easing toward 1.9%, consistent with independent forecasts averaging 3.3–3.4% for Q4. Household inflation expectations have climbed to 3.9% for the year ahead, while labor-market slack and fading base effects exert downward pressure. These crosscurrents—energy volatility versus policy and demand restraint—underpin the closely matched market-implied probabilities between the 3.5–3.9% and 2.5–2.9% ranges for the 2026 annual rate.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen