Recent upward pressure on Canada’s headline CPI, which rose to 2.8% year-over-year in April 2026 from 2.4% in March amid surging energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, has lifted market-implied odds for a 2026 annual average in the 2.0–3.9% range. The Bank of Canada’s April Monetary Policy Report revised its 2026 CPI projection 0.3 percentage points higher to reflect elevated gasoline costs, partially offset by the federal fuel tax suspension, while core measures such as CPI-trim and median remain near or below 2.1%. Subdued economic growth, removal of retaliatory tariffs, and the Bank’s steady 2.25% policy rate continue to anchor expectations, yet forecasts from federal budget documents and private economists cluster around 2.3–2.5%. The closely matched probabilities across multiple brackets reflect uncertainty ahead of the May CPI release on June 22 and evolving oil-price and tariff developments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKanada Jährliche Inflation 2026
2,5–2,9 % 46.9%
3,5–3,9 % 33.9%
2,0–2,4 % 20.0%
1,0–1,4 % 5.8%
$16,471 Vol.
$16,471 Vol.
<1,0 %
33%
1,0–1,4 %
6%
1,5–1,9 %
40%
2,0–2,4 %
20%
2,5–2,9 %
34%
3,0-3,4 %
32%
3,5–3,9 %
34%
4,0 %+
1%
2,5–2,9 % 46.9%
3,5–3,9 % 33.9%
2,0–2,4 % 20.0%
1,0–1,4 % 5.8%
$16,471 Vol.
$16,471 Vol.
<1,0 %
33%
1,0–1,4 %
6%
1,5–1,9 %
40%
2,0–2,4 %
20%
2,5–2,9 %
34%
3,0-3,4 %
32%
3,5–3,9 %
34%
4,0 %+
1%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upward pressure on Canada’s headline CPI, which rose to 2.8% year-over-year in April 2026 from 2.4% in March amid surging energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, has lifted market-implied odds for a 2026 annual average in the 2.0–3.9% range. The Bank of Canada’s April Monetary Policy Report revised its 2026 CPI projection 0.3 percentage points higher to reflect elevated gasoline costs, partially offset by the federal fuel tax suspension, while core measures such as CPI-trim and median remain near or below 2.1%. Subdued economic growth, removal of retaliatory tariffs, and the Bank’s steady 2.25% policy rate continue to anchor expectations, yet forecasts from federal budget documents and private economists cluster around 2.3–2.5%. The closely matched probabilities across multiple brackets reflect uncertainty ahead of the May CPI release on June 22 and evolving oil-price and tariff developments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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