Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Ankara on May 3?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 3?
9°C or higher 100.0%
-1°C or below <1%
0°C <1%
1°C <1%
$64,791 Vol.
$64,791 Vol.
3. Mai 2026
-1°C or below
No
0°C
No
1°C
No
2°C
No
3°C
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C or higher
Yes
9°C or higher 100.0%
-1°C or below <1%
0°C <1%
1°C <1%
$64,791 Vol.
$64,791 Vol.
3. Mai 2026
-1°C or below
$1,940 Vol.
No
0°C
$881 Vol.
No
1°C
$2,406 Vol.
No
2°C
$1,323 Vol.
No
3°C
$1,615 Vol.
No
4°C
$2,560 Vol.
No
5°C
$4,621 Vol.
No
6°C
$6,741 Vol.
No
7°C
$10,081 Vol.
No
8°C
$16,208 Vol.
No
9°C or higher
$16,415 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$64,791Enddatum
3. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$64,791Enddatum
3. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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