Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models points to daytime maxima of 36–38°C in Chengdu on July 15 amid the Sichuan Basin’s subtropical monsoon regime, where high humidity (70–80%) and afternoon convective clouds often cap extreme heating. Trader probabilities peak at 38°C (27.5%) with notable weight on 37–39°C outcomes, reflecting model disagreement on cloud cover, scattered showers, and steering patterns that could suppress or allow brief peaks near 40°C. Historical July climatology shows frequent 35–38°C readings tempered by monsoon moisture, while any shift toward clearer skies or reduced precipitation would favor higher bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables traders are monitoring.