Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Warschau am 2. Juli?
Höchste Temperatur in Warschau am 2. Juli?
27°C 100.0%
19°C oder weniger <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$79,654 Vol.
$79,654 Vol.
2. Juli 2026
19°C oder weniger
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C
Nein
25°C
Nein
26°C
Nein
27°C
Ja
28°C
Nein
29°C oder höher
Nein
27°C 100.0%
19°C oder weniger <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$79,654 Vol.
$79,654 Vol.
2. Juli 2026
19°C oder weniger
$3,269 Vol.
Nein
20°C
$2,284 Vol.
Nein
21°C
$1,805 Vol.
Nein
22°C
$2,540 Vol.
Nein
23°C
$10,341 Vol.
Nein
24°C
$4,454 Vol.
Nein
25°C
$8,379 Vol.
Nein
26°C
$14,739 Vol.
Nein
27°C
$15,549 Vol.
Ja
28°C
$9,374 Vol.
Nein
29°C oder höher
$6,921 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volumen
$79,654Enddatum
2. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$79,654Enddatum
2. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles for Warsaw on July 2 point to a maximum near 25–26°C as the central tendency, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Following the late-June European heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5°C, a cooling trend under more typical mid-latitude flow has lowered expectations from extreme values. Key differentiating factors include forecast spread in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and localized wind shifts that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C provide climatological context, while short-range model updates from agencies such as IMGW and ECMWF remain the dominant near-term catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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