Trader consensus on Polymarket implies around 20-24 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29, with that range leading at 35.5%, reflecting recent AIS tracking data from sources like MarineTraffic showing stable crude oil tanker flows averaging 21-23 weekly amid OPEC+ production cuts extended through Q1 2024 that curbed Persian Gulf exports. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have rerouted some global shipping but left Hormuz traffic largely unaffected, as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraqi oil loadings proceed normally under US 5th Fleet maritime security patrols. Lower odds for extremes like <10 (1.8%) or 45+ (4.5%) account for no imminent closure threats from Iran despite routine naval posturing, while 15-19 and 30-34 bins at 14.5% each highlight uncertainty from potential unscheduled Iranian Revolutionary Guard exercises or demand shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)
20-24 28%
25-29 17%
30-34 15%
15-19 14%
NEW
$14,007 Vol.
NEW
$14,007 Vol.
Mar 29, 2026
<10
2%
10-14
4%
15-19
14%
20-24
33%
25-29
17%
30-34
15%
35-39
11%
40-44
6%
45+
5%
20-24 28%
25-29 17%
30-34 15%
15-19 14%
NEW
$14,007 Vol.
NEW
$14,007 Vol.
Mar 29, 2026
<10
$2,367 Vol.
2%
10-14
$976 Vol.
4%
15-19
$1,205 Vol.
14%
20-24
$2,745 Vol.
33%
25-29
$1,123 Vol.
17%
30-34
$1,017 Vol.
15%
35-39
$1,216 Vol.
11%
40-44
$1,134 Vol.
6%
45+
$2,326 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies around 20-24 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29, with that range leading at 35.5%, reflecting recent AIS tracking data from sources like MarineTraffic showing stable crude oil tanker flows averaging 21-23 weekly amid OPEC+ production cuts extended through Q1 2024 that curbed Persian Gulf exports. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have rerouted some global shipping but left Hormuz traffic largely unaffected, as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraqi oil loadings proceed normally under US 5th Fleet maritime security patrols. Lower odds for extremes like <10 (1.8%) or 45+ (4.5%) account for no imminent closure threats from Iran despite routine naval posturing, while 15-19 and 30-34 bins at 14.5% each highlight uncertainty from potential unscheduled Iranian Revolutionary Guard exercises or demand shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$14,007Enddatum
Mar 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies around 20-24 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29, with that range leading at 35.5%, reflecting recent AIS tracking data from sources like MarineTraffic showing stable crude oil tanker flows averaging 21-23 weekly amid OPEC+ production cuts extended through Q1 2024 that curbed Persian Gulf exports. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have rerouted some global shipping but left Hormuz traffic largely unaffected, as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraqi oil loadings proceed normally under US 5th Fleet maritime security patrols. Lower odds for extremes like <10 (1.8%) or 45+ (4.5%) account for no imminent closure threats from Iran despite routine naval posturing, while 15-19 and 30-34 bins at 14.5% each highlight uncertainty from potential unscheduled Iranian Revolutionary Guard exercises or demand shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$14,007Enddatum
Mar 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies around 20-24 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29, with that range leading at 35.5%, reflecting recent AIS tracking data from sources like MarineTraffic showing stable crude oil tanker flows averaging 21-23 weekly amid OPEC+ production cuts extended through Q1 2024 that curbed Persian Gulf exports. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have rerouted some global shipping but left Hormuz traffic largely unaffected, as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraqi oil loadings proceed normally under US 5th Fleet maritime security patrols. Lower odds for extremes like <10 (1.8%) or 45+ (4.5%) account for no imminent closure threats from Iran despite routine naval posturing, while 15-19 and 30-34 bins at 14.5% each highlight uncertainty from potential unscheduled Iranian Revolutionary Guard exercises or demand shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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