India’s May 2025 Operation Sindoor missile and air strikes on Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba facilities in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, followed by limited Pakistani counterstrikes and a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, demonstrated New Delhi’s willingness to conduct targeted cross-border action after major terrorist incidents such as the Pahalgam attack. A year later, the Line of Control remains tense with sporadic exchanges, while a Council on Foreign Relations assessment flags moderate risk of renewed clashes in 2026 driven by ongoing militant activity in Kashmir. Pakistan’s military has publicly warned of a robust response to any new provocation on the conflict’s anniversary, and both sides continue annual nuclear-site notifications under bilateral agreements. These factors, alongside nuclear deterrence and diplomatic channels, shape trader views that another Indian strike remains unlikely in the immediate term absent a high-profile trigger.