**Traders price a strong likelihood of fewer than five posts from the @khamenei_ir account during the August 7–14 window because the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has maintained a restrained public messaging cadence since succeeding his father in March 2026.** The account, which continues under the successor, has historically issued statements, speeches, and commemorative content rather than high-volume daily updates. Recent weeks have featured controlled output focused on mourning rituals at Ali Khamenei’s martyrdom site and calls for “sacred unity” amid clerical infighting and factional tensions that surfaced in July–early August reporting. Ongoing post-ceasefire frictions with the United States and Israel, including Iranian threats regarding energy infrastructure, further incentivize measured rather than frequent social-media activity to avoid escalation or internal signaling risks. No major scheduled addresses or diplomatic announcements align precisely with the market window that would be expected to drive higher volume, reinforcing the market’s emphasis on the lowest outcome bins.