The May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th congressional district produced roughly 105,000 votes, placing turnout squarely inside the 100-110k band that commands 99.5% market probability. Heavy outside spending, a Trump endorsement for challenger Ed Gallrein, and the high-profile contest against incumbent Thomas Massie more than doubled participation from the 2024 primary, generating unusually strong Republican mobilization across the district’s 21 counties. Official county returns and statewide canvassing have shown no material discrepancies that would shift the total outside this narrow range. Late certification adjustments, discovery of uncounted absentee or provisional ballots, or a successful recount could theoretically move the figure, though historical patterns in Kentucky congressional primaries indicate such changes remain small relative to the current margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert100-110k 99.5%
90-100k 4.9%
<80k 2.9%
80-90k <1%
$48,111 Vol.
$48,111 Vol.
19. Mai 2026
<80k
3%
80-90k
1%
90-100k
5%
100-110k
100%
110-120k
<1%
120k+
<1%
100-110k 99.5%
90-100k 4.9%
<80k 2.9%
80-90k <1%
$48,111 Vol.
$48,111 Vol.
19. Mai 2026
<80k
$5,312 Vol.
3%
80-90k
$4,066 Vol.
1%
90-100k
$2,741 Vol.
5%
100-110k
$13,472 Vol.
100%
110-120k
$7,064 Vol.
<1%
120k+
$15,456 Vol.
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th congressional district produced roughly 105,000 votes, placing turnout squarely inside the 100-110k band that commands 99.5% market probability. Heavy outside spending, a Trump endorsement for challenger Ed Gallrein, and the high-profile contest against incumbent Thomas Massie more than doubled participation from the 2024 primary, generating unusually strong Republican mobilization across the district’s 21 counties. Official county returns and statewide canvassing have shown no material discrepancies that would shift the total outside this narrow range. Late certification adjustments, discovery of uncounted absentee or provisional ballots, or a successful recount could theoretically move the figure, though historical patterns in Kentucky congressional primaries indicate such changes remain small relative to the current margin.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Markt eröffnet: May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
Volumen
$48,111Enddatum
19. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th congressional district produced roughly 105,000 votes, placing turnout squarely inside the 100-110k band that commands 99.5% market probability. Heavy outside spending, a Trump endorsement for challenger Ed Gallrein, and the high-profile contest against incumbent Thomas Massie more than doubled participation from the 2024 primary, generating unusually strong Republican mobilization across the district’s 21 counties. Official county returns and statewide canvassing have shown no material discrepancies that would shift the total outside this narrow range. Late certification adjustments, discovery of uncounted absentee or provisional ballots, or a successful recount could theoretically move the figure, though historical patterns in Kentucky congressional primaries indicate such changes remain small relative to the current margin.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volumen
$48,111Enddatum
19. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th congressional district produced roughly 105,000 votes, placing turnout squarely inside the 100-110k band that commands 99.5% market probability. Heavy outside spending, a Trump endorsement for challenger Ed Gallrein, and the high-profile contest against incumbent Thomas Massie more than doubled participation from the 2024 primary, generating unusually strong Republican mobilization across the district’s 21 counties. Official county returns and statewide canvassing have shown no material discrepancies that would shift the total outside this narrow range. Late certification adjustments, discovery of uncounted absentee or provisional ballots, or a successful recount could theoretically move the figure, though historical patterns in Kentucky congressional primaries indicate such changes remain small relative to the current margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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