Ricardo Ferraço, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, leads the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race with trader consensus around 65% implied probability. Recent July polling from institutes such as Quaest and Real Time Big Data shows Ferraço ahead in most first-round and runoff scenarios, often at 37-41% against main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini of Republicanos at 25-33%, supported by Ferraço’s reported 77% approval rating and broad coalition backing. Pazolini, the Vitória mayor positioned as the primary right-wing alternative, holds the next-highest odds near 33.5% amid a fragmented field that includes lower-polling names such as Helder Salomão (PT). The contest remains open to shifts from coalition negotiations, additional candidate entries, or late polling movements ahead of the October 2026 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWahlsieger bei den Gouverneurswahlen in Espírito Santo
Wahlsieger bei den Gouverneurswahlen in Espírito Santo
Ricardo Ferraço 66%
Lorenzo Pazolini 34%
Arnaldinho Borgo 3.1%
Sergio Vidigal 1.4%
$13,641 Vol.
$13,641 Vol.
5. Okt. 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
66%
Lorenzo Pazolini
34%
Arnaldinho Borgo
3%
Sergio Vidigal
1%
Euclério Sampaio
<1%
Ricardo Ferraço 66%
Lorenzo Pazolini 34%
Arnaldinho Borgo 3.1%
Sergio Vidigal 1.4%
$13,641 Vol.
$13,641 Vol.
5. Okt. 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
$7,254 Vol.
66%
Lorenzo Pazolini
$3,546 Vol.
34%
Arnaldinho Borgo
$1,803 Vol.
3%
Sergio Vidigal
$487 Vol.
1%
Euclério Sampaio
$550 Vol.
<1%
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, leads the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race with trader consensus around 65% implied probability. Recent July polling from institutes such as Quaest and Real Time Big Data shows Ferraço ahead in most first-round and runoff scenarios, often at 37-41% against main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini of Republicanos at 25-33%, supported by Ferraço’s reported 77% approval rating and broad coalition backing. Pazolini, the Vitória mayor positioned as the primary right-wing alternative, holds the next-highest odds near 33.5% amid a fragmented field that includes lower-polling names such as Helder Salomão (PT). The contest remains open to shifts from coalition negotiations, additional candidate entries, or late polling movements ahead of the October 2026 vote.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volumen
$13,641Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, leads the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race with trader consensus around 65% implied probability. Recent July polling from institutes such as Quaest and Real Time Big Data shows Ferraço ahead in most first-round and runoff scenarios, often at 37-41% against main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini of Republicanos at 25-33%, supported by Ferraço’s reported 77% approval rating and broad coalition backing. Pazolini, the Vitória mayor positioned as the primary right-wing alternative, holds the next-highest odds near 33.5% amid a fragmented field that includes lower-polling names such as Helder Salomão (PT). The contest remains open to shifts from coalition negotiations, additional candidate entries, or late polling movements ahead of the October 2026 vote.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$13,641Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ricardo Ferraço, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, leads the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race with trader consensus around 65% implied probability. Recent July polling from institutes such as Quaest and Real Time Big Data shows Ferraço ahead in most first-round and runoff scenarios, often at 37-41% against main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini of Republicanos at 25-33%, supported by Ferraço’s reported 77% approval rating and broad coalition backing. Pazolini, the Vitória mayor positioned as the primary right-wing alternative, holds the next-highest odds near 33.5% amid a fragmented field that includes lower-polling names such as Helder Salomão (PT). The contest remains open to shifts from coalition negotiations, additional candidate entries, or late polling movements ahead of the October 2026 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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