Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to his status as incumbent, consistent first-round polling support above 46% in recent surveys from Datafolha, Ideia, and others through early August 2026, and broad alliances with mayors and center-right parties. His decision to seek reelection rather than a national bid has consolidated Republican and allied backing ahead of the October 4 vote. Fernando Haddad trails by double digits as the main challenger, with minor candidates showing negligible traction. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and stable voter intentions. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp shifts in national economic conditions could still narrow the margin before election day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertTarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,031 Vol.
$279,031 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
94%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,031 Vol.
$279,031 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$122,996 Vol.
94%
Fernando Haddad
$46,886 Vol.
4%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,777 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to his status as incumbent, consistent first-round polling support above 46% in recent surveys from Datafolha, Ideia, and others through early August 2026, and broad alliances with mayors and center-right parties. His decision to seek reelection rather than a national bid has consolidated Republican and allied backing ahead of the October 4 vote. Fernando Haddad trails by double digits as the main challenger, with minor candidates showing negligible traction. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and stable voter intentions. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp shifts in national economic conditions could still narrow the margin before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volumen
$279,031Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to his status as incumbent, consistent first-round polling support above 46% in recent surveys from Datafolha, Ideia, and others through early August 2026, and broad alliances with mayors and center-right parties. His decision to seek reelection rather than a national bid has consolidated Republican and allied backing ahead of the October 4 vote. Fernando Haddad trails by double digits as the main challenger, with minor candidates showing negligible traction. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and stable voter intentions. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp shifts in national economic conditions could still narrow the margin before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$279,031Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to his status as incumbent, consistent first-round polling support above 46% in recent surveys from Datafolha, Ideia, and others through early August 2026, and broad alliances with mayors and center-right parties. His decision to seek reelection rather than a national bid has consolidated Republican and allied backing ahead of the October 4 vote. Fernando Haddad trails by double digits as the main challenger, with minor candidates showing negligible traction. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and stable voter intentions. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp shifts in national economic conditions could still narrow the margin before election day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen