Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated formal requests, a record that underpins the 96.9% trader consensus against any such removal before 2027. The process requires a two-thirds Senate vote after lower-house approval, creating structural barriers reinforced by the court's own moves to tighten procedural rules and by Senate leadership consistently declining to advance proceedings against sitting justices. Recent congressional investigations into figures such as Gilmar Mendes produced recommendations but stalled short of formal votes, while political dynamics—including Lula administration setbacks and opposition efforts tied to 2026 elections—have not altered the chamber's protective stance. The compressed timeframe through year-end further limits opportunities for legislative action. Shifts in Senate composition after October elections or an unprecedented cross-party coalition could still open pathways, though both remain low-probability catalysts within the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$82,649 Vol.
$82,649 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$82,649 Vol.
$82,649 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated formal requests, a record that underpins the 96.9% trader consensus against any such removal before 2027. The process requires a two-thirds Senate vote after lower-house approval, creating structural barriers reinforced by the court's own moves to tighten procedural rules and by Senate leadership consistently declining to advance proceedings against sitting justices. Recent congressional investigations into figures such as Gilmar Mendes produced recommendations but stalled short of formal votes, while political dynamics—including Lula administration setbacks and opposition efforts tied to 2026 elections—have not altered the chamber's protective stance. The compressed timeframe through year-end further limits opportunities for legislative action. Shifts in Senate composition after October elections or an unprecedented cross-party coalition could still open pathways, though both remain low-probability catalysts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volumen
$82,649Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated formal requests, a record that underpins the 96.9% trader consensus against any such removal before 2027. The process requires a two-thirds Senate vote after lower-house approval, creating structural barriers reinforced by the court's own moves to tighten procedural rules and by Senate leadership consistently declining to advance proceedings against sitting justices. Recent congressional investigations into figures such as Gilmar Mendes produced recommendations but stalled short of formal votes, while political dynamics—including Lula administration setbacks and opposition efforts tied to 2026 elections—have not altered the chamber's protective stance. The compressed timeframe through year-end further limits opportunities for legislative action. Shifts in Senate composition after October elections or an unprecedented cross-party coalition could still open pathways, though both remain low-probability catalysts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$82,649Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite repeated formal requests, a record that underpins the 96.9% trader consensus against any such removal before 2027. The process requires a two-thirds Senate vote after lower-house approval, creating structural barriers reinforced by the court's own moves to tighten procedural rules and by Senate leadership consistently declining to advance proceedings against sitting justices. Recent congressional investigations into figures such as Gilmar Mendes produced recommendations but stalled short of formal votes, while political dynamics—including Lula administration setbacks and opposition efforts tied to 2026 elections—have not altered the chamber's protective stance. The compressed timeframe through year-end further limits opportunities for legislative action. Shifts in Senate composition after October elections or an unprecedented cross-party coalition could still open pathways, though both remain low-probability catalysts within the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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