**A persistent early summer heatwave across northern France is anchoring trader expectations for Paris's June 25 overnight low near 24–25 °C.** Recent model guidance and Météo-France analyses show a strong high-pressure ridge maintaining clear skies, light winds, and advection of warm subtropical air, which limits radiative cooling and keeps minimum temperatures elevated well above seasonal normals of roughly 14–16 °C. Ensemble forecasts cluster around 24–26 °C for the urban heat-island-adjusted minimum, producing the tight spread visible in current market prices (24 °C at 20.5 %, 25 °C at 24 %, 23 °C and 26 °C each near 20 %). Slight differences among leading outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture, exact wind speeds overnight, and the strength of the urban heat-island effect, all of which can shift the recorded low by 1–2 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away and no major model shifts expected before then, the narrow clustering around 24–25 °C captures the consensus view of limited overnight cooling under continued anticyclonic conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 25. Juni?
25°C 100.0%
22°C oder weniger <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$17,810 Vol.
$17,810 Vol.
22°C oder weniger
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C
Nein
25°C
Ja
26°C
Nein
27°C
Nein
28°C
Nein
29°C
Nein
30°C
Nein
31°C
Nein
32°C oder höher
Nein
25°C 100.0%
22°C oder weniger <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$17,810 Vol.
$17,810 Vol.
22°C oder weniger
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C
Nein
25°C
Ja
26°C
Nein
27°C
Nein
28°C
Nein
29°C
Nein
30°C
Nein
31°C
Nein
32°C oder höher
Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
**A persistent early summer heatwave across northern France is anchoring trader expectations for Paris's June 25 overnight low near 24–25 °C.** Recent model guidance and Météo-France analyses show a strong high-pressure ridge maintaining clear skies, light winds, and advection of warm subtropical air, which limits radiative cooling and keeps minimum temperatures elevated well above seasonal normals of roughly 14–16 °C. Ensemble forecasts cluster around 24–26 °C for the urban heat-island-adjusted minimum, producing the tight spread visible in current market prices (24 °C at 20.5 %, 25 °C at 24 %, 23 °C and 26 °C each near 20 %). Slight differences among leading outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture, exact wind speeds overnight, and the strength of the urban heat-island effect, all of which can shift the recorded low by 1–2 °C. With resolution less than 48 hours away and no major model shifts expected before then, the narrow clustering around 24–25 °C captures the consensus view of limited overnight cooling under continued anticyclonic conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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