Montana's strong Republican lean, reinforced by the state's voting history and recent presidential margins, anchors the Republican nominee Kurt Alme's dominant position in the 2026 Senate race following incumbent Steve Daines's retirement. Alme secured the GOP nomination with broad party support and leads recent polls by double digits over independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, whose candidacies fragment opposition support in a three-way contest. Traders assign over 90 percent probability to a Republican victory based on this structural advantage and consistent polling trends. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or unexpected consolidation of the non-Republican vote could still narrow the margin before the November election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRepublikaner 93%
Unabhängig 2.5%
Demokrat <1%
$111,272 Vol.
$111,272 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikaner
93%
Unabhängig
2%
Demokrat
1%
Republikaner 93%
Unabhängig 2.5%
Demokrat <1%
$111,272 Vol.
$111,272 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikaner
$55,889 Vol.
93%
Unabhängig
$15,221 Vol.
2%
Demokrat
$40,162 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's strong Republican lean, reinforced by the state's voting history and recent presidential margins, anchors the Republican nominee Kurt Alme's dominant position in the 2026 Senate race following incumbent Steve Daines's retirement. Alme secured the GOP nomination with broad party support and leads recent polls by double digits over independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, whose candidacies fragment opposition support in a three-way contest. Traders assign over 90 percent probability to a Republican victory based on this structural advantage and consistent polling trends. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or unexpected consolidation of the non-Republican vote could still narrow the margin before the November election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volumen
$111,272Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's strong Republican lean, reinforced by the state's voting history and recent presidential margins, anchors the Republican nominee Kurt Alme's dominant position in the 2026 Senate race following incumbent Steve Daines's retirement. Alme secured the GOP nomination with broad party support and leads recent polls by double digits over independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, whose candidacies fragment opposition support in a three-way contest. Traders assign over 90 percent probability to a Republican victory based on this structural advantage and consistent polling trends. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or unexpected consolidation of the non-Republican vote could still narrow the margin before the November election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$111,272Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana's strong Republican lean, reinforced by the state's voting history and recent presidential margins, anchors the Republican nominee Kurt Alme's dominant position in the 2026 Senate race following incumbent Steve Daines's retirement. Alme secured the GOP nomination with broad party support and leads recent polls by double digits over independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, whose candidacies fragment opposition support in a three-way contest. Traders assign over 90 percent probability to a Republican victory based on this structural advantage and consistent polling trends. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or unexpected consolidation of the non-Republican vote could still narrow the margin before the November election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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