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icon for Nächstes Google Gemini-Blitzmodell (3.7+): Arena-Debüt?
Technik·AI

Nächstes Google Gemini-Blitzmodell (3.7+): Arena-Debüt?

icon for Nächstes Google Gemini-Blitzmodell (3.7+): Arena-Debüt?
Technik·AI

Nächstes Google Gemini-Blitzmodell (3.7+): Arena-Debüt?

NEU

$28,569 Vol.

Polymarket

$28,569 Vol.

Polymarket

1480+

$3,852 Vol.

98%

1490+

$3,908 Vol.

92%

1495+

$6,263 Vol.

2%

1500+

$2,987 Vol.

1%

1510+

$11,559 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying Google Gemini model must have “Flash” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 3.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, gemini-3.7-flash, gemini-3.8-flash, or gemini-4.0-flash-preview, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Flash,” or which retain a version designation below 3.7, such as gemini-3.0-flash-high, gemini-3.5-flash, or gemini-3.6-flash-preview, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Google's longstanding pattern of anonymously testing successive Gemini Flash iterations on Arena.ai's Text Arena before official launches drives current trader sentiment around the 3.7+ model. The just-released Gemini 3.7 Flash, positioned as the most capable workhorse for coding and agentic workflows, follows the July 2026 debut of 3.6 Flash and shows strong leaderboard placement in blind evaluations alongside competitors like Claude Opus variants. This approach allows real-world Elo benchmarking amid rapid iteration cycles, with traders watching for any pre-GA sightings or developer previews that could precede the next drop. Upcoming catalysts include further efficiency updates or I/O-timed releases that have historically accelerated Arena appearances once internal testing stabilizes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying Google Gemini model must have “Flash” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 3.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, gemini-3.7-flash, gemini-3.8-flash, or gemini-4.0-flash-preview, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Flash,” or which retain a version designation below 3.7, such as gemini-3.0-flash-high, gemini-3.5-flash, or gemini-3.6-flash-preview, will not qualify.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered.

If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$28,569
Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 10:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying Google Gemini model must have “Flash” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 3.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, gemini-3.7-flash, gemini-3.8-flash, or gemini-4.0-flash-preview, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Flash,” or which retain a version designation below 3.7, such as gemini-3.0-flash-high, gemini-3.5-flash, or gemini-3.6-flash-preview, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying Google Gemini model must have “Flash” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 3.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, gemini-3.7-flash, gemini-3.8-flash, or gemini-4.0-flash-preview, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Flash,” or which retain a version designation below 3.7, such as gemini-3.0-flash-high, gemini-3.5-flash, or gemini-3.6-flash-preview, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Google's longstanding pattern of anonymously testing successive Gemini Flash iterations on Arena.ai's Text Arena before official launches drives current trader sentiment around the 3.7+ model. The just-released Gemini 3.7 Flash, positioned as the most capable workhorse for coding and agentic workflows, follows the July 2026 debut of 3.6 Flash and shows strong leaderboard placement in blind evaluations alongside competitors like Claude Opus variants. This approach allows real-world Elo benchmarking amid rapid iteration cycles, with traders watching for any pre-GA sightings or developer previews that could precede the next drop. Upcoming catalysts include further efficiency updates or I/O-timed releases that have historically accelerated Arena appearances once internal testing stabilizes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying Google Gemini model must have “Flash” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 3.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, gemini-3.7-flash, gemini-3.8-flash, or gemini-4.0-flash-preview, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Flash,” or which retain a version designation below 3.7, such as gemini-3.0-flash-high, gemini-3.5-flash, or gemini-3.6-flash-preview, will not qualify.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered.

If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$28,569
Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 10:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying Google Gemini model must have “Flash” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 3.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, gemini-3.7-flash, gemini-3.8-flash, or gemini-4.0-flash-preview, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Flash,” or which retain a version designation below 3.7, such as gemini-3.0-flash-high, gemini-3.5-flash, or gemini-3.6-flash-preview, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Verwandte

icon for Wird das nächste Google Gemini Pro Modell, das zur Arena-Bestenliste hinzugefügt wird, mit einer Punktzahl von mindestens 1480 debütieren?

Wird das nächste Google Gemini Pro Modell, das zur Arena-Bestenliste hinzugefügt wird, mit einer Punktzahl von mindestens 1480 debütieren?

92%
Ja
icon for Wird das nächste Grok-Modell (4.6+) bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 mit einer Punktzahl von mindestens 1440 debütieren?

Wird das nächste Grok-Modell (4.6+) bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 mit einer Punktzahl von mindestens 1440 debütieren?

99%
Ja
icon for Wird OpenAIs Astra-Modell mit einer Punktzahl von mindestens 1480 auf der Arena-Bestenliste debütieren?

Wird OpenAIs Astra-Modell mit einer Punktzahl von mindestens 1480 auf der Arena-Bestenliste debütieren?

75%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Nächstes Google Gemini-Blitzmodell (3.7+): Arena-Debüt?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „1480+" mit 98%, gefolgt von „1490+" mit 92%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 98¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 98% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Nächstes Google Gemini-Blitzmodell (3.7+): Arena-Debüt?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $28.6K generiert, seit der Markt am Aug 13, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Nächstes Google Gemini-Blitzmodell (3.7+): Arena-Debüt?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Nächstes Google Gemini-Blitzmodell (3.7+): Arena-Debüt?" ist „1480+" mit 98%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 98% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „1490+" mit 92%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Nächstes Google Gemini-Blitzmodell (3.7+): Arena-Debüt?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.