Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 2.4M-2.6M TSA passengers for March 25 (78% implied probability), driven by sustained spring break travel momentum and robust U.S. consumer spending amid resilient economic data like sub-4% unemployment. Recent TSA reports show weekday throughput consistently above 2.3 million in mid-March, with records like 2.72 million on March 16 underscoring pent-up demand; March 25, a pre-Easter Tuesday, aligns with this elevated trend versus 2023's sub-2.2 million average. Lower odds for 2.2M-2.4M (21%) reflect fading winter slowdown risks, while tail risks above 2.6M remain slim absent holiday surges. Official data release expected soon will resolve, with market-implied odds backed by real capital wagering on travel sector strength.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert2.4M-2.6M 71%
2.2M-2.4M 22%
2.6M-2.8M 2.1%
<2.2M 1.0%
<2.2M
1%
2.2M-2.4M
22%
2.4M-2.6M
78%
2.6M-2.8M
2%
2.8M-3.0M
1%
>3.0M
1%
2.4M-2.6M 71%
2.2M-2.4M 22%
2.6M-2.8M 2.1%
<2.2M 1.0%
<2.2M
1%
2.2M-2.4M
22%
2.4M-2.6M
78%
2.6M-2.8M
2%
2.8M-3.0M
1%
>3.0M
1%
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 2.4M-2.6M TSA passengers for March 25 (78% implied probability), driven by sustained spring break travel momentum and robust U.S. consumer spending amid resilient economic data like sub-4% unemployment. Recent TSA reports show weekday throughput consistently above 2.3 million in mid-March, with records like 2.72 million on March 16 underscoring pent-up demand; March 25, a pre-Easter Tuesday, aligns with this elevated trend versus 2023's sub-2.2 million average. Lower odds for 2.2M-2.4M (21%) reflect fading winter slowdown risks, while tail risks above 2.6M remain slim absent holiday surges. Official data release expected soon will resolve, with market-implied odds backed by real capital wagering on travel sector strength.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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