Polymarket trader consensus implies subdued natural gas prices around $3.00–$3.50/MMBtu for April 2026, anchored by a massive U.S. supply glut with inventories at 3,745 Bcf—20% above the five-year average—as of late October. Record production exceeding 104 Bcf/d and mild winter weather have crushed spot prices to $2.25/MMBtu, flattening the NYMEX futures curve where the April 2026 contract hovers near $3.40. Key dynamics include steady LNG export growth to Europe offsetting weak domestic heating demand, though downside risks loom from further storage builds. Traders eye Thursday's EIA report and NOAA winter outlook for volatility triggers, with geopolitics adding tail risks to resolution odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert↑ 4,20 $
100%
↑ $4,00
100%
↑ $3,80
100%
↑ 3,60 $
100%
↑ $3,40
100%
↑ $3,20
100%
↑ $3,00
100%
↓ $2,80
100%
↓ $2,60
100%
↓ $2,40
100%
↓ $2,20
100%
↓ $2,00
100%
↓ $1,80
51%
↓ $1,60
100%
$0.00 Vol.
↑ 4,20 $
100%
↑ $4,00
100%
↑ $3,80
100%
↑ 3,60 $
100%
↑ $3,40
100%
↑ $3,20
100%
↑ $3,00
100%
↓ $2,80
100%
↓ $2,60
100%
↓ $2,40
100%
↓ $2,20
100%
↓ $2,00
100%
↓ $1,80
51%
↓ $1,60
100%
For Natural Gas futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month.
For Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as four business days prior to the first calendar day of the contract's delivery month, consistent with CME contract specifications.
Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month Natural Gas futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Commodities.NGDM6%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month Natural Gas (NG) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Commodities.NGDM6%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Commodities.NGDM6%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket trader consensus implies subdued natural gas prices around $3.00–$3.50/MMBtu for April 2026, anchored by a massive U.S. supply glut with inventories at 3,745 Bcf—20% above the five-year average—as of late October. Record production exceeding 104 Bcf/d and mild winter weather have crushed spot prices to $2.25/MMBtu, flattening the NYMEX futures curve where the April 2026 contract hovers near $3.40. Key dynamics include steady LNG export growth to Europe offsetting weak domestic heating demand, though downside risks loom from further storage builds. Traders eye Thursday's EIA report and NOAA winter outlook for volatility triggers, with geopolitics adding tail risks to resolution odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen