Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over DHS funding past the March 29 continuing resolution deadline, with odds tightly clustered across early April timelines after the House narrowly passed a stopgap measure on March 22 extending DHS appropriations only through that Friday. Partisan gridlock persists, as House Republicans demand spending cuts and border security provisions in DHS bills—led by hardliners pressuring Speaker Johnson—while Senate Democrats resist policy riders, favoring clean funding extensions. This standoff keeps the race competitive, mirroring historical short shutdown resolutions via bipartisan CRs, though prolonged negotiations could extend into mid-April. A swift Senate vote or compromise deal would favor "Before April 1," while filibuster threats or whip count failures might boost later bins; markets await weekend talks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertVor dem 1. April 33%
9.–12. April 27%
13.–16. April 27%
17.–20. April 27%
Vor dem 1. April
33%
1.–4. April
26%
5.–8. April
26%
9.–12. April
27%
13.–16. April
27%
17.–20. April
27%
21.–24. April
24%
25.–28. April
24%
29.–30. April
24%
Nach dem 30. April
25%
Vor dem 1. April 33%
9.–12. April 27%
13.–16. April 27%
17.–20. April 27%
Vor dem 1. April
33%
1.–4. April
26%
5.–8. April
26%
9.–12. April
27%
13.–16. April
27%
17.–20. April
27%
21.–24. April
24%
25.–28. April
24%
29.–30. April
24%
Nach dem 30. April
25%
The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 9:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over DHS funding past the March 29 continuing resolution deadline, with odds tightly clustered across early April timelines after the House narrowly passed a stopgap measure on March 22 extending DHS appropriations only through that Friday. Partisan gridlock persists, as House Republicans demand spending cuts and border security provisions in DHS bills—led by hardliners pressuring Speaker Johnson—while Senate Democrats resist policy riders, favoring clean funding extensions. This standoff keeps the race competitive, mirroring historical short shutdown resolutions via bipartisan CRs, though prolonged negotiations could extend into mid-April. A swift Senate vote or compromise deal would favor "Before April 1," while filibuster threats or whip count failures might boost later bins; markets await weekend talks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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